Business Model Design under Economic Uncertainty: Integrating Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in Strategic Decision-Making

Abstrak / Ringkasan

Purpose: This study aims to design a comprehensive model for developing business models under economic uncertainty, emphasizing game theory and behavioral economics in strategic decision-making.Methodology: A mixed-methods sequential-exploratory design was employed. In the qualitative phase, 24 semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior managers and strategic experts in Iran, and data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke's six-stage thematic analysis via MAXQDA 2022. In the quantitative phase, a researcher-developed questionnaire was distributed among 430 managers and senior experts across five industry clusters; 412 analyzable questionnaires were returned (95.8% response rate). Data were analyzed using SPSS 26 and SmartPLS 4 through PLS-SEM and Importance-Performance Analysis (IPMA).Findings: The model comprises three principal dimensions: strategic environment awareness, behavioral dynamics of decision-makers, and competitive game structure. All three dimensions significantly influenced business model effectiveness. Behavioral dynamics exhibited the greatest influence (? = 0.42, t = 7.12), followed by strategic environment awareness (? = 0.31, t = 5.84) and competitive game structure (? = 0.27, t = 5.23). The model explained 58% of the variance in effectiveness (R² = 0.58), with satisfactory predictive relevance (Q² = 0.42) and goodness-of-fit (GoF = 0.61).Conclusion: The proposed model offers a comprehensive analytical framework for organizations confronting economic uncertainty. Integrating game theory and behavioral economics facilitates anticipating competitors' behavior and recognizing decision-makers' cognitive biases. Managers should prioritize cognitive bias management, strengthen multi-scenario analysis, and continuously monitor their industry's competitive structure.

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